“Dank” der Flut an täglichen News und Mitteilungen passiert es auch mir als Journalist einmal, Lesenswertes zu vergessen bzw. zu posten. So auch der aktuelle Beitrag von meinem US-Kollegen Elliott Gue auf moneyshow.com.
Diesmal geht es wieder einmal um den Healthcare-Sektor. Und wie ich finde lesenswert und mit einer schönen Aktien-Empfehlung dabei.
Health care stocks are out of favor. For years, the sector had a well-deserved reputation for consistent returns and profitability regardless of broader economic conditions.
But the past two years have challenged this reputation. The health care reform package passed earlier this year omitted some of the most damaging proposals, such as a government-run insurance option. But the bill is extraordinarily complex, and provisions will be phased in over time; health care companies have struggled to quantify the impact beyond 2010. Investors abhor uncertainty.
Although the sector faces undeniable challenges, markets often overreact to new regulation, providing attractive entry points for savvy investors and a low bar of expectations. On a forward price-to-earnings basis, health care stocks are almost as cheap today as they were at the market’s 2009 nadir—despite improved economic prospects and credit conditions.
And on a relative basis, health care stocks traditionally have commanded a premium to the Standard & Poor’s 500 index thanks to their defensive growth characteristics. In terms of price-to-sales ratio, the group trades at a 10% discount to the broader market, near historic lows.
Nonetheless, drugs companies must keep a steady stream of new prospects moving through trials to replace revenue when patents expire on existing treatments. Many of the industry’s biggest players will face this problem over the next five years.
But this pain is another company’s gain. The massive wave of patent expirations will be a boon for Pharmaceutical Product Development (Nasdaq: PPDI) and other contract research organizations (CROs).
Drug and biotechnology firms hire PPDI to design, manage, and run clinical trials throughout the development cycle. Outsourcing these functions enables pharmaceuticals firms to cut costs and focus budgets on identifying new compounds for trial.
But the tide has turned. Cancellation rates have dropped sharply over the past two quarters, and the pace of new orders is picking up, especially for later-stage trials. Buy PPDI under $28.