Die Research-Abteilung von Goldman Sachs hat sich zuletzt man wieder zum Thema BRIC gemeldet. Man kann da allerhand Interessantes und auch schon Bekanntes lesen. In Ihrer Publikation “BRICs Monthly: 10/05 – Government Debt in the BRICs” lesen wir also Folgendes:
The recent downturn has led to a rapid rise in public debt levels across the developed world and, in its aftermath, to a heightened focus on countries’ fiscal positions. The BRICs economies, in aggregate, have a much lower level of gross public debt relative to developed countries, and this gap has widened dramatically over the past decade. However, there is significant variation in the fiscal positions of the individual BRICs.
However, there has been significant variation in the evolution of the BRICs’ debt positions. Brazil’s debt burden rose precipitously during its period of hyperinflation and has remained high since. India has also had consistently high debt levels, stemming from high and increasing expenditures on salaries, pensions and subsidies. Russia has brought down its debt level significantly since its default in 1998, primarily on the back of higher oil prices. China has seen an increase in debt since the early 1990s, but the official level is still low compared with other countries.
During the recent crisis, the BRICs enacted large fiscal stimulus measures that led to a subsequent rise in debt. However, debt increased by a much smaller amount than in DMs.
We believe that India and Brazil will need some consolidation to bring down their debt levels. Russia’s debt level currently appears to be sustainable, but its recent pro-cyclical pattern is slightly worrying. Although China has seen a large increase in ‘unofficial’ local government debt, the backstop provided by its large asset holdings suggests that its debt levels will not prove problematic.
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